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Results

Estimated Tax Refund
$3,980
money back from the IRS
Taxable Income $43,900
Estimated Tax Owed $5,020
Federal Tax Withheld $9,000
Effective Tax Rate 8.37%

Based on IRS Revenue Procedure 2025-32 (Effective from 2026-01-01)

What This Calculator Does

This tool gives a quick estimate of your 2026 US federal income tax refund — or the balance you may owe — based on your gross annual income, filing status, and the federal tax already withheld from your paychecks. It applies the 2026 standard deduction and the IRS marginal tax brackets. It is an estimate only and does not include state taxes, tax credits, itemized deductions, or other adjustments.

Balance scale comparing tax withheld against tax owed resulting in a refund
The calculator compares what was withheld against what is actually owed.

How to Use It

Choose your filing status (Single or Married Filing Jointly), enter your gross annual income, and enter the total federal income tax withheld (Box 2 of your W-2). The calculator subtracts the standard deduction to find taxable income, applies the progressive brackets to find your estimated tax owed, and subtracts that from what you paid in to show your refund or amount due.

The Formula Explained

First, taxable income = income − standard deduction ($16,100 single / $32,200 married for 2026):

$$\text{Taxable} = \max(\text{Income} - \text{Std Deduction},\ 0)$$

Tax owed is calculated bracket by bracket: each slice of income is taxed at its own rate (10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, 37%). Finally:

$$\text{Refund} = \text{Withheld} - \text{Tax Owed}$$

A positive result is a refund; a negative result means you owe.

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Flow from income through deduction and tax brackets to tax owed, then withholding minus tax owed equals refund
Withholding minus tax owed gives a refund (positive) or balance due (negative).

Worked Example

A married couple earns $120,000 and had $12,000 withheld. Taxable income = \(120{,}000 - 32{,}200 = \$87{,}800\). Tax: 10% of the first $24,800 = $2,480; 12% of the remaining $63,000 \((87{,}800 - 24{,}800)\) = $7,560. Total tax owed = $10,040. Refund:

$$\text{Refund} = 12{,}000 - 10{,}040 = \$1{,}960$$

FAQ

Does this include state taxes? No — it covers federal income tax only.

Why might my real refund differ? Tax credits (Child Tax Credit, EITC), itemized deductions, capital gains, and other income types are not modeled here.

Which year does it use? The 2026 tax year standard deduction and brackets.

Sources & References

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